Bayesian analysis of multifidelity computer models with local features and non-nested experimental designs: Application to the WRF model

Motivated by a multi-fidelity Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate model application where the available simulations are not generated based on hierarchically nested experimental design, we develop a new co-kriging procedure called Augmented Bayesian Treed Co-Kriging. The proposed procedure extends the scope of co-kriging in two major ways. We introduce a binary treed partition latent process in the multifidelity setting to account for non-stationary and potential discontinuities in the model outputs at different fidelity levels. Moreover, we introduce an efficient imputation mechanism which allows the practical implementation of co-kriging when the experimental design is non-hierarchically nested by enabling the specification of semi-conjugate priors. Our imputation strategy allows the design of an efficient RJ-MCMC implementation that involves collapsed blocks and direct simulation from conditional distributions. We develop the Monte Carlo recursive emulator which provides a Monte Carlo proxy for the full predictive distribution of the model output at each fidelity level, in a computationally feasible manner. The performance of our method is demonstrated on benchmark examples and used for the analysis of a large-scale climate modeling application which involves the WRF model

Bayesian Treed Calibration: an application to carbon capture with AX sorbent

In cases where field (or experimental) measurements are not available, computer models can model real physical or engineering systems to reproduce their outcomes. They are usually calibrated in light of experimental data to create a better representation of the real system. Statistical methods, based on Gaussian processes, for calibration and prediction have been especially important when the computer models are expensive and experimental data limited. In this paper, we develop the Bayesian treed calibration (BTC) as an extension of standard Gaussian process calibration methods to deal with non-stationarity computer models and/or their discrepancy from the field (or experimental) data. Our proposed method partitions both the calibration and observable input space, based on a binary tree partitioning, into subregions where existing model calibration methods can be applied to connect a computer model with the real system. The estimation of the parameters in the proposed model is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational techniques. Different strategies have been applied to improve mixing. We illustrate our method in two artificial examples and a real application that concerns the capture of carbon dioxide with AX amine based sorbents. The source code and the examples analyzed in this paper are available as part of the supplementary materials

Bayesian treed multivariate Gaussian process with adaptive design: Application to a carbon capture unit

Computer experiments are widely used in scientific research to study and predict the behavior of complex systems, which often have responses consisting of a set of nonstationary outputs. The computational cost of simulations at high resolution often is expensive and impractical for parametric studies at different input values. In this article, we develop a Bayesian treed multivariate Gaussian process (BTMGP) as an extension of the Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) to model the cross-covariance function and the nonstationarity of the multivariate output. We facilitate the computational complexity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler by choosing appropriately the covariance function and prior distributions. Based on the BTMGP, we develop a sequential design of experiment for the input space and construct an emulator. We demonstrate the use of the proposed method in test cases and compare it with alternative approaches. We also apply the sequential sampling technique and BTMGP to model the multiphase flow in a full scale regenerator of a carbon capture unit

Seven HCI Grand Challenges

This article aims to investigate the Grand Challenges which arise in the current and emerging landscape of rapid technological evolution towards more intelligent interactive technologies, coupled with increased and widened societal needs, as well as individual and collective expectations that HCI, as a discipline, is called upon to address. A perspective oriented to humane and social values is adopted, formulating the challenges in terms of the impact of emerging intelligent interactive technologies on human life both at the individual and societal levels. Seven Grand Challenges are identified and presented in this article: Human-Technology Symbiosis; Human-Environment Interactions; Ethics, Privacy and Security; Well-being, Health and Eudaimonia; Accessibility and Universal Access; Learning and Creativity; and Social Organization and Democracy. Although not exhaustive, they summarize the views and research priorities of an international interdisciplinary group of experts, reflecting different scientific perspectives, methodological approaches and application domains. Each identified Grand Challenge is analyzed in terms of: concept and problem definition; main research issues involved and state of the art; and associated emerging requirements

Publisher Correction: Genetic tool development in marine protists: emerging model organisms for experimental cell biology.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper

Genetic tool development in marine protists: emerging model organisms for experimental cell biology

Abstract: Diverse microbial ecosystems underpin life in the sea. Among these microbes are many unicellular eukaryotes that span the diversity of the eukaryotic tree of life. However, genetic tractability has been limited to a few species, which do not represent eukaryotic diversity or environmentally relevant taxa. Here, we report on the development of genetic tools in a range of protists primarily from marine environments. We present evidence for foreign DNA delivery and expression in 13 species never before transformed and for advancement of tools for eight other species, as well as potential reasons for why transformation of yet another 17 species tested was not achieved. Our resource in genetic manipulation will provide insights into the ancestral eukaryotic lifeforms, general eukaryote cell biology, protein diversification and the evolution of cellular pathways